There's no way to spin this: Monday was a rough day for investors.
The Dow was down 7.8%
The S&P 500 fell 7.6%
The Nasdaq Composite slid 7.3%
Reminder: Take a deep breath. And another. It's all going to be okay.
Health Crisis: Downturn to Recovery
Historically, downturns caused by health crises don't last forever. The charts above show the SARS and Zika crises from 2003 and 2016, respectively. In both cases, the sell-off trough lasted for much of the first quarter before stocks resumed their upward trend.
I can't tell you when things will turn or by how much, but my expectation is that investors bearing today's risk will be compensated with positive expected returns. Unfortunately, history has shown no reliable way to identify a market peak or bottom. This means it is unwise to make market moves based on fear or speculation, events difficult and traumatic events transpire.
In other words, stick to your financial plan.
It's Okay to Be Nervous
Note: My friend and fellow financial planner Will Kaplan, CFP® wrote the following three paragraphs. I couldn't improve upon them, so I asked him if I could include them here. Enjoy.
Feeling nervous as the market drops is normal. That is part of our biological response to bad news. As humans we feel bad news about twice as intensely as we experience good news. It's just how we are wired and part of why being investors is so challenging.
Courage does not mean that you are not afraid. Courage is doing something even though it is scary. It is okay to be afraid, but fear should not be our only guide.
Discipline is remembering that we know markets go down from time to time and remembering that we have a plan for when they do. We rebalance the portfolio (when necessary) to maintain the asset allocation. We want to be buying when markets are down and selling when markets are up. The challenge isn't in knowing what to do, but in being disciplined and not allowing our emotional response to derail our plan.
One Last Thought
The late Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard, once commented in other periods of heightened volatility in the markets, "The expression is 'don't just stand there, do something' and the best rule I think is 'don't do something, just stand there.'"
While the news in the short-term may get worse before it gets better, long-term perspective and patience are necessary to ride out short-term volatility in the markets. Hang in there.
